"Youngor bubble" disoriented

"Youngor bubble" misleading, not just an ebb and flow of the assets of the

enterprise book, more important is, if such phenomena spread, the capital market

"mutual touted type foam" and enterprise valuation of the original logic will

encounter challenge, will eventually to be bent on the industry, pursuit of a

hundred years colleagues of impact.

In a-share listed companies in non-financial sectors, equity earnings are more

than main business income phenomenon does not see more, and it is A one-off. For

instance said before use-friend investment bank, jilin AoDong investment in

Beijing 52.61, negotiable securities (1.37, 2.67%) etc. Like youngor such long-

term, large-scale financial investment, lest only fosun pharmaceutical company,

mass transportation, waigaoqiao a few home. Etc. However, if the listed company

cash flow abundant, undistributed profit or the funds raised overmuch, foreign

financial investment may fast growth.

Gem companies super funds raised so much, advocate course of fundamental hold in

strict supervision over the bank only "enjoying" negative interest. Allow these

funds are involved in directional additionally-issued is a win more choice. But

first to "youngor phenomenon" reflection, and early out countermeasures,

otherwise probable cause two problems.

The first is blew big asset bubble. If the listed company involved in each other,

directional additionally-issued 1,000 lack money from another 1,000 financing 100

billion yuan. If the investee every melts to 1 yuan can increase 1 yuan net

profit, according to 20 times PE calculation, 1000 million yuan investment can

make the investee total capitalisation grow 2 trillion yuan. To assume the

investor share to 2 trillion yuan (i.e. one-tenth of 200 billion yuan), these are

listed companies market capitalisation of increased 4 trillion yuan. Taste blood

of listed companies in the second year and mutual threw 1000 billion yuan, and

fiery capital market is 30 times the price-earnings ratio, the a-share market

capitalization will therefore increasing 12 trillion yuan! Two years 2000 million

yuan investment real benefits only 200 billion yuan, and the a-share market

capitalization unexpectedly can increase 18 trillion yuan!

The second is that investors for the listed company valuations disoriented.

Fluctuation huge financial assets will make performance ups and downs. Suppose a

man with 50 yuan buying citic, when zhang face value reached 100 million yuan

seeking mortgages, can blend to 70 million yuan is pretty good. Won't someone

give four times as "city net rate", ascertain this account value of 200 million

yuan. The more there won't be given 20 times "p", maintain the account value of

10 million yuan. So, youngor to 20 times PE in the marketplace basis is what? 240

billion yuan of financial assets entry looks very beautiful, but meet market

adjusting one year shrink one-third is very normal. The listed company net assets

will suddenly reduce 80 billion yuan, sell how many shirts to fill up this

deficit (similar things already in youngor truly happened)? So, the mature

markets of financial company listed valuations are very low. Goldman sachs,

merrill lynch such top big investment Banks also however get eight times PE. GE

always carefully in the finance field obtained incomes control in the income of

below 40 percent, is in order not to be market is classified as finance company.

Recently the subprime crisis once again proved such valuations are correct.

From the micro perspective, youngor in textile and clothing, real estate and

equity investment for three carriages strategic understandable. Good for each

business is done hai. Textile clothing industry is periodic than real estate

industry evident, and when the appreciation of the renminbi, clothing export

thwarted when asset prices (including equity and real estate) but will value-

added, these three categories of business complementarity is established.

But on the other hand, youngor "mixed" against itself to fight a "of a hundred

years". Monster Energy

hatsIs the so-called "the out a hole, its kingdom without disorderly,"

meaning that interests from a hole outflow, only to give everyone the correct

guidance. If the future youngorNFL Hats operator input shirt business of painstaking

efforts but earn millions yuan, and catch a wave of big bull market but can

receive tens of billionsRed Bull Hats of dollars investment returns, who will go making

clothing brand?